The Metrics Problem
An Introduction to American Metrics
Welcome to American Metrics, a new publication evaluating American progress from first principles using metrics. Today, when two analysts examine the same dataset on education, healthcare, or the economy, one sees progress while the other sees decline.
The 2024 presidential election was a referendum on the future of America. Both sides presented compelling narratives, backed by statistics. Both firmly claimed vindication. In this environment, and since the late 2000’s, people’s trust in a data-driven understanding of reality continues to erode.
Americans are choosing their outlook on the world by choosing their media outlet. Cherry picked data to support specific narratives has become the norm. This post-truth environment has succeeded in making other Americans your enemy.
Yet even with so much polarization, nearly everyone agrees on some points. America’s education system needs to be improved. Public debt is a serious issue that needs to be addressed (somehow, someday, by someone). Cost of living continues to be a challenge. Infrastructure is in a sorry state.
Today’s political class is interested in scoring political points to prove their policies work or to prove the other side’s policies don’t. This is where the challenge lies: the metrics we use to define and measure “success” are often flawed, not because of a lack of data but because the metrics fail to capture what truly matters—evaluating America’s progress from first principles.
If we are to solve these and other problems, it is important to focus on measuring success for Americans. What matters is understanding the foundational goals and values that should guide our nation. These include, but are not limited to questions like:
Are we educating our children effectively?
Are we fostering economic opportunity for all?
Are businesses able to innovate?
Are Americans living healthy lives?
Are we able to live, work, and study safely?
Metrics, when chosen and interpreted thoughtfully, should serve as tools to answer these fundamental questions. In short, we should be measuring life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
Historically and today two dynamics have undermined this purpose.
First, we often choose metrics that align with our biases rather than challenge them. When data is tortured enough and viewed through a favored lens, a metric emerges that provides whatever confirmation bias the torturer desires. During President George W. Bush’s tenure, No Child Left Behind measured only adherence to a minimum standard. The program ignored schools that showed improvement (but didn’t meet the standard) and those who exceeded the standard (gifted funding fell under no child left behind).
Second, even when metrics are chosen in good faith, they frequently fall victim to Goodhart’s Law: when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Together, these distortions prevent us from evaluating America’s progress. Under President Obama, when unemployment rate becomes a target metric, it is easy to say “the economy is good!” when millions have simply given up looking for work.
In short, America has a metrics problem, and both parties have contributed to this dynamic.
The solution isn’t to abandon metrics entirely, but to use them as tools grounded in first principles. Instead of merely accepting traditional indicators or bending new ones to fit preconceived narratives, we need to step back and ask: What do we truly want for our country?
What is American Metrics?
American Metrics is my contribution to solving this problem. My goal is to show American data and metrics in a way that means something to the average American, not just economists or to be tortured into political sound bites. I want to answer questions that inform decisions instead of justifying them.
Once or twice a week I will find data that gives us this perspective. Over time I will build up these metrics into thematic dashboards (crime, economy, jobs, health, etc). My goal is to evaluate the numbers as they are, clearly and honestly. I’ll treat these metrics like a national report card, tracking changes over time, highlighting improvements, and shining a light on areas needing attention.
The answers we get from these data will not always support your viewpoint (or mine). Often we won’t get answers at all, but perhaps a fuzzy picture of what is going on.
This is of course all very new and a pretty big thing to take on. I’ll approach it like eating an elephant, one bite at a time. Mostly I will write about what interests me in the moment, and that will hopefully intersect with the current zeitgeist. So I hope you will consider joining me on this journey of exploring America through data. I sincerely hope to learn a lot along the way and hopefully inform you as well.
Who am I?
I’m Robert, and I have an unconventional background. I’ve worked on Capitol Hill (briefly), worked as a management consultant (briefly), and then moved to the other side of the world (Mongolia) in 2012 to start a university and several businesses. Now I’m refocusing on America, a country I deeply care for.
If you want to get in touch you can email me (robert at americanmetrics dot org).